Introduction?/title> <o:SmartTagType namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="country-region" downloadurl="http://www.5iantlavalamp.com/"/> <o:SmartTagType namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="City" downloadurl="http://www.5iamas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags"/> <o:SmartTagType namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="place" downloadurl="http://www.5iantlavalamp.com/"/>  <style>  </style>  </head> <body lang=IT link=blue vlink=purple style='tab-interval:36.0pt'><div class=Section1> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><u><span lang=EN-US>A Reluctant <st1:country-region w:st="on">America</st1:country-region> Will Join the Grand <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Alliance</st1:place></st1:City><o:p></o:p></span></u></p> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span lang=EN-US>By Erin Phalen</span></p> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span lang=EN-US>September 2007</span></p> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span lang=EN-US><a href="mailto:ephalen@uga.edu">ephalen@uga.edu</a></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:36.0pt'><span lang=EN-US>Since the 1970’s the economic power of <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">China</st1:place></st1:country-region>, based on a system of “authoritarian capitalism,?has grown immensely and now stands to outpace the rest of the world in just several decades.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>Although the global structure of nations is subject to change over time, the reigning superpower may not always been a “benign?hegemon, like the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">United States</st1:place></st1:country-region>.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>? </span><st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">China</st1:place></st1:country-region> would fit into the other category if it took over the international system and would not be a benevolent international leader.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>? </span>The solution, proposed by Carlo <span class=SpellE>Pelanda’s</span> book <i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'>The Grand Alliance,</i> is an alliance comprised of the world’s most powerful democracies to pool their economic and military resources.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> ?</span>A Grand alliance among the world's powerful democracies, including the United States, the European Union and the large Asian democracies, Russia, Japan, and India.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>All of these countries come together to pose the ultimate counterbalance to <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">China</st1:place></st1:country-region> and together govern the international system through the principles of fair trade and democratic capitalism.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>? </span>However, the first step is to integrate the EU and the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place> and this is not an easy task.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>This is certainly not a guaranteed from the European side and neither from the American.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>There are many obstacles in the way impeding the first step of the process into the Grand Alliance.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>However, after the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> realizes that the Grand Alliance is in its self-interest it will join, but not for some time.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:36.0pt'><span lang=EN-US>The first obstacle in the way of the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region></st1:place> joining the Grand Alliance is that its democratic system is inherently reactionary and based on consensus.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>Unless a significant event occurs that adversely affects the interests and well-being of Americans, it is unlikely that the country will come together and support a large-scale alliance.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>Even though joining an alliance isn’t as important as fighting in a war on the surface, it is just as significant an action because it affects the security and stability of the nation through economic, technological, and global cooperation.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>A strong example of the lack of American action towards decisions is the Kyoto Protocol. Because the proof of climate change by emissions is not immediately visible, the economic costs outweigh the potential environmental benefits of the treaty to the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region>.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>If there visible, adverse signs of climate change become more frequent it is more likely that the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">United States</st1:place></st1:country-region> would react by allying with other powers to solve the problem.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>? </span>Although the President in the <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region> system has more executive power than the leaders of the democracies of <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place>,<b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='color:fuchsia'> </span></b>he or she alone will not be able to commit the country to such an alliance.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>Only an autocracy or dictatorship could carry out such an approach where the opinions of the citizens have little or no merit.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>? </span>Politicians in every branch of government are accountable to their constituents in a democracy, which makes these representatives less likely to act rashly without first considering the opinions of those in their district.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>With the balance of Congress reviewing executive decisions, it is unlikely that quick passage of a proposal to formally join such an alliance would occur. </span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:36.0pt'><span lang=EN-US>Another impediment in the way of American joining the Grand Alliance is American public opinion.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>Becoming a member of such an alliance is not likely because of the protectionist ideas spreading across the nation.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>Another example of American public opinion regarding alliances is the failure to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>This treaty was unpopular with the American public because undeveloped countries would receive breaks and developed countries would suffer economic losses due to the harsher standards and penalties on these countries.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>The Kyoto Agreement did not garner much support from the American public because it was economically harmful to <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">America</st1:place></st1:country-region>.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>In a similar way, many Americans were opposed to NAFTA (North America Free Trade Agreement) because of predictions that state sovereignty would be compromised and the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> would lose economic advantages.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>Even though this proved not to be the case, many people opposed being a member of a regional organization of which the United States would not being the guiding power.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>The United Nations is yet another example of an organization of which the some Americans do not strongly approve.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>They believe that this organization does not ultimately help the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> while giving up state sovereignty in the process. The American people are wary of joining alliances and their support is ultimately necessary.<span style='mso-tab-count:1'> ?</span></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:36.0pt'><span lang=EN-US>Americans are feeling increasingly isolationist because of the actions and consequences involving President Bush’s “War on Terror.?span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>? </span>Although the idea of fighting terrorism globally is a noble cause, the costs of doing this unilaterally are immense, making the task nearly impossible.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>With the perceived failure of <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region> intervention in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region>, a feeling of isolationism is creeping into the American psyche.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>This type of feeling of protectionism and isolationism has occurred in periods throughout American history, most recently the period during the latter stages of the Vietnam War.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>This <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Iraq</st1:place></st1:country-region> war has caused Americans to look inward to focus on domestic issues and try to ignore the world around them.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>However, globalization is too powerful of a force to allow this to occur.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>The <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> is bound to other countries through a myriad of channels and it is too late to even consider only domestic matters alone.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>This does not stop some political candidates and elected officials from taking some of this public opinion and reaffirming it by spinning it to support their campaign.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>Based on these previous examples the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> will not be easily into joining the Grand Alliance.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>? </span></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='text-indent:36.0pt'><span lang=EN-US>Another obstacle for the <st1:country-region w:st="on">U.S.</st1:country-region> joining the Grand Alliance is whether <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">America</st1:place></st1:country-region> would realistically take part in such an alliance where they were not the “first among equals.?span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>Because of its position as the preeminent Western power since the end of WWII, the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> would have serious qualms about not being in charge of the alliance.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>The <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> has had a leadership role and a strong voice in every Western alliance since <span class=SpellE>Bretton</span> Woods.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>This includes NATO and the UN.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>The <st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> also led many military coalitions, especially post-Cold War, including the first Gulf War, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Bosnia</st1:country-region>, and <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Afghanistan</st1:place></st1:country-region>.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>American diplomats see their solutions as superior to those of other countries; however, in the Grand Alliance the roles are designed to be equal in nature, presenting a dilemma for the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-tab-count:1'> ?</span>A significant roadblock for the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place> becoming a member of the Grand Alliance is seeing the world as it really is and seeking truth from facts.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>After the Iraq War, which the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> entered without UN support, many in the international community were outraged and saw this as another example of American attempts at Imperialism.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>Even President Bush has implied that the US is not the extreme hegemon anymore by admitting the projecting US force in both Iraq and Afghanistan has overextend the nation’s capabilities. The American people know their armed forces are spread too thin; however, they do not know all the facts about the possible sharp decline <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">America</st1:place></st1:country-region> and those consequences. The <st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> is still a powerful country, but it is being seriously challenged by the developing economies of <st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">India</st1:place></st1:country-region>, and the formation of regional blocs.</span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-tab-count:1'> ?</span>Although there is idle talk of the challenge <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">China</st1:place></st1:country-region> poses to both American and global security, it is not seriously discussed.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>? </span>To realistically convince the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">United States</st1:place></st1:country-region> to join the Grand Alliance, China needs to be seen as a security threat, not only a lucrative trading partner and a mass producer of cheap goods.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>Americans are in favor of capitalism and free trade and utilizing foreign markets to gain capital and grow the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region> economy.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>For these reasons, many <st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> citizens may be blind to the fact that <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">China</st1:place></st1:country-region> is really a threat instead of simply an economic partner.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>? </span>There is no incentive to alter the current stability in trade amongst the countries.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>Such action might greatly affect the international market as a whole, possibly sending the system in a downward spiral.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>Even though most of the business world knows that <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">China</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s authoritarian government operates on contrived exchange rates and speculation, their relationship is currently profitable for their businesses and they do not wish to change this dynamic. They fail to see the economic and strategic threat of <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">China</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s rising power because the Chinese are not blatantly aggressive about it.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-tab-count:1'> ?</span>However, even with all these factors working against the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> joining the Grand Alliance, I believe that they will join, just not soon.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>? </span>While all of the obstacles together present a strong roadblock, the interests and security of the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> will be the country’s main concern.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>Once it becomes more evident that <st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> stability that <st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> stability truly is threatened by a rising <st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region>, the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> will do everything in its power to reverse this process.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>The most rational approach to do this is to counterbalance <st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region> with an alliance, creating a bloc that is bigger than <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">China</st1:place></st1:country-region>.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>Although the <st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> military is currently the most superior in the world, <st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region> is improving and is on schedule to surpass the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">US</st1:place></st1:country-region> economically and militarily in several decades.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>? </span>When this becomes clearer, the <st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> will not strike <st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region> militarily, rather it will join the powerful democracies to counterbalance <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region></st1:place> and to dominate the global system.</span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-tab-count:1'> ?</span>In order to convince the <st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region> to join the Grand Alliance it is essential that the people know that joining this alliance is in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">America</st1:place></st1:country-region>’s best interest.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>First it is important to convince elites and large corporations that this is a lucrative plan and that the benefits outweigh.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>This idea would then trickle down through society, largely carried by the media.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>This would certainly be a slow process, but it can work.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>In reality, the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">US</st1:country-region></st1:place> is already a successful participant in alliances, even though in the Grand Alliance they would be not <span class=GramE>be</span> the only leader.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>It is very important to portray that global stability is in <st1:country-region w:st="on">America</st1:country-region>’s best interest and a rising <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">China</st1:place></st1:country-region> is a huge threat to this.</span></p> <p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US><span style='mso-tab-count:1'> ?</span>With <st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region>’s power rising, the <st1:country-region w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region> will eventually ally with <st1:place w:st="on">Europe</st1:place> to start the beginnings of the Grand Alliance.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>Even though they will overcome these domestic obstacles, the timeframe is not short.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>Certain actions need to be set in motion by other governments and influential elites to convince <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">America</st1:place></st1:country-region>, but they will see what is in their best interest and eventually gain consensus to join the Grand Alliance.<span style='mso-spacerun:yes'>?</span>With the first two parts of the Grand Alliance complete, the even more difficult task of allying with <st1:country-region w:st="on">Russia</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Japan</st1:country-region>, and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">India</st1:country-region></st1:place> still will await.</span></p> </div> </body> </html>