As
the prospect of war in Iran
looms large, will Germany
support the Grand Alliance or waver to China?
by
Abeeda
Mahboob
September
2007
abeeda@uga.du
?The
United Nations Security Council has not called for military intervention in Iran, but the United
States has not ruled out its own military action and I do
not doubt that it will enjoy the support of leading members of the European
Union, specifically Germany,
as discussed in The Grand Alliance.??/span>
?Germany
has joined the five permanent U.N.?Security
Council member countries - the United States,
Russia, France, China
and England, all nuclear
powers - in talks to discuss strategy for a new sanctions resolution against
Iran.?When the council convened in
March, Russia and China, both whom have considerable commercial
ties to Iran,
opposed any harsh response.?At that
time, Germany,
too, was hesitant and expressed concerns about any such action.?However, Germany's
business ties with Iran are
far less consequential than those of Russia
and China and since then,
Sean McCormack, a spokesman for the U.S.?State Department, said, "Germany once again reiterated the fact that it
is fully supportive of a new resolution" (New sanctions against Iran being
discussed).
And, “the German
government has repeatedly made clear that it will point to human rights
shortcomings, no matter any governmental ties" (Analysis: German-Chinese
diplomatic crisis).?Just last month,
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's visit with the Dalai Lama created another
rift in German-Chinese diplomatic relations.?
China's Foreign
Ministry spokeswoman, Jiang Yu, said the German chancellor's meeting with the
exiled spiritual leader "grossly interfered" with China's
internal affairs and "severely hurt the feelings of the Chinese
people" and "seriously undermined" relations between the two
countries (Analysis: German-Chinese diplomatic crisis).?Since the meeting, Beijing has called off talks between Chinese
and German officials and canceled a traditional breakfast between its foreign
minister and his German counterpart, Frank-Walter Steinmeier.?While the ramifications from this incident
may not be severe or enduring, Eberhard Sandschneider, head of the China
Program at the German Council on Foreign Relations, a Berlin-based think tank,
said, "The Chinese have a long memory, and they have in the past followed
up their irritation with economic repercussions" (Analysis: German-Chinese
diplomatic crisis).
?To
add insult to injury, President George W. Bush will follow Merkel’s example
later this month when he is also scheduled to meet the Dalai Lama and award him
the Congressional Gold Medal, the country's highest civilian honor, in front of
the Capital in Washington D.C.?In
fact, the British news publication, the Daily Telegraph, has reported that the
Bush Administration no longer views Britain
as its most loyal ally in Europe since the
election of Gordon Brown and is instead turning more towards Merkel and?Nicolas Sarkozy, the French President.?When Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
countered that "the United States
and France
are not the world" and thus, should not speak for the world, Merkel was
quick to provide additional support for the alliance.?She warned Iran
if it didn't give in, then "Germany will resolutely lobby for
further, harsher sanctions." Merkel continued, "It is not the world
which must prove that Iran
is building an atomic bomb.?Iran must convince the world that it does not
want the atomic bomb" (Analysis: EU to support Iran sanctions?)
?U.S.?Secretary of State Condeleezza Rice and French
Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner have both implored for more pressure to get Iran
to terminate its nuclear ambitions. ?/span>Earlier
last month, Mr.?Kouchner told the French
media that "a nuclear weapon in the hands of Iran
would be a danger for the whole world" and that "we have to prepare
for the worst, and the worst is war" (France:
War may be called for in Iran).?Kouchner has spoken of "a three-pronged
diplomatic approach through the United Nations, by International Atomic Energy
Agency chief Mohamad ElBaradei, and in the European Union, where he said EU
member countries can exert more economic leverage against Tehran"
(US,
France Support Iran Sanctions).?Kouchner
said that the government has asked French private companies to discontinue
business with Iran
and he also discussed the possibility of European Union sanctions with the
German government, both parties key to the Grand Alliance.
It is entirely
possible Merkel is more willing to support EU sanctions than some of her fellow
countrymen.?For instance, German news
magazine Der Spiegel reported that German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter
Steinmeier has accused "U.S.
companies of continuing to do business with Iran
despite the 1979 boycott with the help of bogus letterbox companies in Dubai, in the United Arab
Emirates" (Analysis: EU to support Iran sanctions?).?Other German officials have raised similar
concerns over American and French companies that continue to trade with Iran
even while both countries urge other nations to desist.?And in August, diplomats from Germany, France,
and the United Kingdom
lobbied against a proposed legislation that would mandate sanctions on energy
companies investing more than $20 million in Iran.?The good news for Merkel, however, is that
these concerns have not fallen on deaf ears.?
The Bush administration, aware of the sensitivity and unwilling to jeopardize
a European alliance, is opposed to the legislation too.
Also, the Angus
Reid Global Monitor reported last week that conservatives maintain a strong
lead over all other political parties in Germany.?A poll, taken by Infratest-Dimap, found that
"39 per cent of respondents would back the Christian-Democratic Union
(CDU) or the Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU) in the next election to the
Federal Diet" (Angus Reid Global Monitor).?
This news is favorable for the Bush Administration and concerning for
Democrats.
It is true that
in the past, the United
States has had trouble trusting European
allies to be effective. For example, “Europeans have participated in the NATO
mission in Afghanistan,
given a clear legitimizing mandate by the United Nations. Germany demanded rules of
nonaggressive engagement?(Pelanda 124). However, if history is any indicator
of the future, Germany
should be wary of dissenting against the United States.?The last time Germany
openly opposed an U.S. intervention
in the Middle East, ?st1:country-region w:st="on">Italy,
the United Kingdom and Spain, as well as the new entrants to the Union in eastern Europe, isolated [it].?This stance [was] probably fostered and
nurtured by the United
States?(Pelanda 53).?
?Ultimately,
I do not think that Germany
can be persuaded to align itself with China
and Russia.
As we have discussed in class, previous efforts at an Eurasian axis, led by Russia, were unsubstantial because Germany and France
were isolated within Europe and because a strong alliance with Russia
did not have any future. It should also be noted that “even during periods of
most serious divergence from the United States, and in the period of Eurasian
temptation, Germany did not want to break off relations with Washington?
(Pelanda 61).
?Germany
has been quick to distance itself from its sordid past. Today “special
relations are pursued with the United States…in an attempt to overcome its
guilty image in the eyes of the world and specifically of the Europeans,
Germany always stood firmly against war, taking up a cooperative and nominally
pro-European Community position?(Pelanda 58). This past could help France and the United
States provoke Germany
into taking a firmer stance against Iran
and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his belligerent rhetoric against Israel and the
Holocaust. Germany
has also cemented its lationship with the European community by finally closing
the "German question". By agreeing to the idea of a single European
currency, it solidified its commitment to the European Union and minimized its
risk of isolation. The Euro is "the stabilizing response to the risk of
European disorder since the common participation in a monetary system is a very
strong tie. Divorce is unthinkable" (Pelanda 149-150).
?Germany is also facing stiff competition from China economically and I would not understand
why they would want to be party to any resolution that would be favorable to China’s
economy. This past February, Gerd Herx, director of Germany's federal agency
for external trade announced that China will probably overtake Germany as the
world's largest exporter in 2008 and will overtake the United States as the
world's second largest exporter later this year.?Currently, China
leads the United States and South Korea
as the world's largest exporter of electronic goods, with exports topping $300
billion.
?I
am a believer in the Grand Alliance and I have no fear that Germany will not play a critical
role in its development and maintenance.
Works
Cited
“Conservatives Remain Ahead in Germany.?Angus
Reid Global Monitor. 2 Oct. 2007. ?/span>
<http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/conservatives_remain_ahead_in_germany/>
?st1:country-region w:st="on">France:
War may be called for in Iran.?
United Press International. 1 Oct. 2007.
<http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Top_News/2007/09/16/france_war_may_be_called_for_in_iran/7346/>
“New sanctions against Iran being discussed.?United
Press International. 1 Oct. 2007.
<http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Top_News/2007/09/12/new_sanctions_against_iran_being_discussed/4781/
Nicola, Stefan. “Analysis: EU to support Iran
sanctions??United Press International. 1
Oct. 2007.
<http://www.upi.com/International_Security/Emerging_Threats/Analysis/2007/09/26/analysis_eu_to_support_iran_sanctions/4940/>
Nicola, Stefan.?“Analysis: German-Chinese diplomatic crisis.?
United PressInternational. 1 Oct. 2007.
<http://www.upi.com/International_Security/Emerging_Threats/Analysis/2007/09/25/analysis_germanchinese_diplomatic_crisis/2591/>
?/span>
“US, France Support Iran Sanctions.?Eagle
World News. 1 Oct. 2007.
<http://www.eagleworldnews.com/2007/09/22/us-france-support-new-iran-sanctions/>