“If the Grand Alliance
happens, what can the Grand Alliance expect from
the Middle East and what incentives should the Grand Alliance offer to counter a backlash??
the past few decades, the Middle East has been
a criticizer of western politics. Fake democracies, dictators, and
Islamic beliefs have prevented the growth of true democracy and a strong
economy to better support the states and its citizens. If the Grand
Alliance assembles within the given time frame, the Middle
East will likely pose the most strife towards the Grand Alliance.
On that note, the Alliance needs to come
up with certain incentives to help counter the animosity from the Middle East, stemming from its corrupted governments and
radical religious beliefs. The incentives will help to break down and
persuade the states to join a unified economy.
the most of the Middle East, the spread of
democracy and developed market economies never was able to take hold in the
region. Only in certain zones such as Dubai,
and other areas in the Persian gulf
were able to take certain amounts of western influence to build on the oil
riches in the area and allow for economic growth in the area. Governments
in the region are based on Islamic Law. With this kind of government in
place, it makes it difficult to spread democracy thus furthering its economic
objective allowing for growth. Saudi Arabia,
the geographic centerpiece for the Middle East,
has begun to adopt some western belief by joining the WTO and allowing a number
of cities to economically grow. Other states such as Iran
however, has a tight grip on its oil production and most revenue is
controlled by the state thus not allowing for growth in the private sectors.
Also, its plans to develop nuclear energy have further caused
difficulties in the state. The region has become a breeding ground for
religious terrorism. States supported terrorist have crippled the region,
thus spreading fear though out the area. With the Islamic regimes in the
area create a never ending cycle of terrorism causing the opportunity for a
free market to collapse.
the Grand Alliance forms between the major economies, an almost certain
backlash can be expected from the Middle East.
Perhaps a feeling of western states uniting against the Islamic world
could form. An anti-alliance movement can spur from the fear. There
for oil now becomes a major factor. As the book states, “if Saudi Arabia
were to fall to a Jihad group, oil now can be used as a weapon by committing
economic suicide in the name of their cause.? This alone could cause a
serious problem in the Alliance.
With oil reserves in the Middle East
consisting of more than sixty percent of the world oil reserves, a major
economic earthquake could occur throughout the major economies. In turn,
if the Alliance was to be left out and China was the only profiteer from the oil, this
could also cause an adverse action by allowing China to still thrive. Also,
if the presence of such economic uncertainty is there, the confidence of major
states of the Alliance
could wither and a break up could be on the verge.
Iran pursuing nuclear
energy, a Middle Eastern balancing could set Iran at the front of an
anti-alliance guild. Furthermore, if a Islamic
regime such as Iran
now having nuclear weapons can give power to fanatic terrorist if a weapon such
as a nuke got into their hands. Though, as the book says, the economies
combined would be able to survive an attack on a major economic city, it would
no doubtingly be a bad thing. In turn, if states in the Middle
East begin to fail due to the economic suicide, this could leave
the entire region engulfed in violence for a number of years.
no other major domestic products in the region besides oil, it becomes
difficult to promote growth. Also, with the reluctance of letting in
private companies and free markets to stimulate the economy and allow for the
chance to lower the soaring unemployment rates, thus allowing for opportunities
for the chance of better education to further develop the economy and well
being of its citizens, the states will continue in a path to slow development.
This is where incentives from the Grand Alliance becomes
to help counter a backlash should be done as the Alliance is in the formation period. It
would be better to begin talks to have the region feel as if there were to be
an Alliance with the Middle East and also with India, Russia,
Granted, the Middle East is not apart of
the original Grand Alliance, but it would definitely be a very big partner and
probably a big ally in getting the rest of the world to become apart of it as
well. If the Middle East were to join
early on the in the formation, backlash can be prevented.
market zones in the Persian Gulf, such as Qatar,
Dubai City, and Kish Island of Iran prove that
there can be movement in the region for economic growth. These areas are
very wealthy and can be a consumer’s playground. If this has been able to
happen, it is possible to create cities near these trade routes inland and
allow for the economy to grow from the borders into the capitals thus allowing
for growth. Granted, the Islamic way of life stands in
the way, especially if the Islamic Law is still in effect in the constitutions
of these states. However in states like Qatar,
the constitutional monarchy in place has relaxed the laws and Qatar has
flourished because of it. If influence from states like
spread to states around it, perhaps a totally new middle east could form.
Therefore, pressure from the Grand Alliance to states like Qatar, United Arab
Emirates, and a liberalizing Saudi
Arabia, can influence Iraq
to begin to participate in the economy led by the Grand Alliance thus
will forever be a big incentive in the area. The incentive to include oil
from the Middle East will benefit both the Middle East
and more importantly the Grand Alliance. Having said this, the movement
to try to reduce the dependence of oil from the Middle
East could be a bad thing. The Alliance must include the major oil producers
in the economy and not cut them off. If states in the Middle
East were to join, this could most likely be the main reason why
they would. Being that oil is bringing in the most revenue to the
economies of this region, this idea makes sense. More pressure can be
made on Iran
to weaken its grip on the oil revenue and find a way to help spread it through
out the country.
most important aspect of the incentive plan has to be to spread true democracy
at a pace that would not cause instability in the area. To move to fast like in Iraq, can lead to a very unstable
state with terrorism and religious fanatics running amok. A slowly
but steady pressure of governments to become democratic must not be done in a
hurry. Therefore the Alliance
must tie in the economy first and then after the economies become dependant on
that of the alliance, begin to suggest democratizing. Turning into
democracies will allow for capitalism to spread in the region thus hopefully
easing the minds of the Islamic people that a more liberal nation can lead to
greater wealth. On that note, making sure that autocracies and religious
fanatics are slowly be banished from the government.
They must be able to separate a majority of their religion from the
governments. This idea, though a hard one to make happen, will be key in
helping democracy take hold a stay away from personal ventures of power
military action should be a last resort. If military intervention were to
be an option by the Grand Alliance it would be a costly one. To bring the
states of the Middle East into an economic
alliance, attacking the state would definitely have an adverse reaction.
This would only prolong the time in achieving the aims of the Grand
Alliance. This means diplomacy should be a top priority in gaining
movement in the win-sets in states like Saudi
Arabia and Iran.
conclusion, the Grand Alliance of the major economies of the world would be a
great achievement. However, the Alliance
must expect a backlash from the Middle East.
In turn creating a well-constructed incentive plan for the Middle East to join in is key. Also,
this can perhaps bring peace to a region of the world that is know for violence
and in turn create greater prosperity for the Alliance and for states of the
Middle East. Having no immediate signs of serious change, the Middle East
must be persuaded into aligning with the structure of western economies in
order to gain the full benefits of having the Middle East in the Alliance.
The Central Intelligence Agency. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/.
“The Future of Oil?
IAGS. Institute for the
analysis of Global Security. 2005. http://www.iags.org/futureofoil.html
Pelanda, Carlo. The Grand Alliance: The
global integration of democracies. Milano, Italy.